1.7 miles NNE of Annandale, VA

Mesoscale Predictability of the Surprise Snowstorm of 24-25 January 2000
Issn: 1520-0493 Journal: Monthly Weather Review Volume: 130 Issue: 6 Pages: 1617-1632
Authors: Zhang, F., Snyder, Chris, Rotunno, Richard


A mesoscale model is used here to investigate the possible sources of forecast error for the 24-25 January 2000 snowstorm along the east coast of the United States. The primary focus is the quantitative precipitation forecast out to lead times of 36 hours. The success of the present high-resolution control forecast shows that the storm could have been well forecasted with conventional data in real time. Various experiments suggest that insufficient model grid resolution and errors in the initial conditions both contributed significantly to problems in the forecast.